
GroenLinks, the dutch green party, has been through one of the most interesting year in a long time. Mirroring the developments on the land, change is on the move. The question is to where. Undoubtedly, the coming of december, that traditional moment of taking stock, opens the opportunity of playing the sage and try to peek into the next year. What's going to happen? Where will we, groenlinksers, try to direct our party? In what follows, some loose thoughts on the matter.
Navel gazing, our internal structures and their changes
Let's begin with the party as itself, the structures and groups that formally make groenlinks what it is. I believe that it is self-evident that the collective groenlinks has become less important as a creator of independent thinking and action. In the years before 2010 the party was asked to produce an agenda for the future, for the triad of ideology, organization and strategy. That agenda, finally produced in 2009, has have little or none influence in the public course of the party in 2010. The leadership of GroenLinks, at local, national or european level, has little use for the documents generated in the "toekomst project". Those that believed that the internal discussion could generate an innovative agenda have been corrected. Parliament and city council members has been pursuing their own agendas, with success, or not.
All the same, the toekomst project had, inside the party, two important effects: the (far) left wing of GroenLinks have been marginalized and the internal organization has been fundamentally changed. Regarding the first effect, it is not an exaggeration to say that around 2008 existed in Groenlinks a relevant current of opinion that opposed the liberal agenda of Halsema. Most of this current nucleated itself around the so called Kritisch GroenLinks group, that for a while challenged the views of the MPs. But this debate, which extended a bit into the toekomst project, had no ideological consequences. KGL was a protest, but offered no alternative. Accordingly, it loosed influence and today the day is un-existent. It might be that a number of groenlinksers are still uneasy with the liberal agenda of GroenLinks today, but they are nor vocal nor organized. It is very unlikely that in 2011 a new left revolt would flare in GroenLinks.
The second effect of the toekomst project at internal level was the creation of an extended training program for new political talent and the reform of the partijraad. The first program, alive and functioning today, has been training relatively new members of GroenLinks into the currents views and strategies that we use. I do not expect change in any way coming from this group, since "training" in itself is the teaching of a set of values and practices, instead of the generation of internal debate. It is undoubtable that the new trained members will support the current political line of GroenLinks, without challenging it. In the coming years we are looking at a party that will be less alive with internal debate, but will have a new level of stability and coherency. Turning to the reform of the partijraad: GroenLinks was one of the last parties in Netherlands to count with an internal assembly of members qualified to criticize the labour of elected politicians. Formally qualified, that is. The way of discussion of the partijraad made pretty impossible to create constructive counterweight to the political agenda of the party leadership. Even when the partijraad reversed several important decisions of the party board (the expulsion of senator Pormes is one key example) it was never considered as a constructive organism inside GL, but rather a collection of confused troublemakers. This has changed in 2010. Today the partijraad has been given the task of addressing long term issues. The relevance of this is still to be seen, but it is certainly of no relevance for the daily life of politics. In 2011 we will be looking at a partijraad searching for its own place in the debate of The Netherlands.
So much for the internal life of GroenLinks. Stability seems to be the key word for 2011. But what about GroenLinks new leadership? What will happen with the position of GroenLinks in the public arena? In what follows I identify three areas where GroenLinks will be busy in the years to come, or at least in 2011. The first is about our relation with diversity, the second is about our relation with other political streams in The Netherlands and the third is about Europe and the environment.
From culture to economics
The decade that we are leaving behind was a decade of huge societal change. The fruits from decennia of migration and progressive globalization finally came to the attention of the public debate, if not in the positive way that groenlinksers would have liked. Faced with the attacks of Al Qaeda and others, a strong current of opinion against Islamic fundamentalists became mainstream. Back in 2000 GroenLinks looked like being at the verge of forming government, but even when the numbers of party members grew in the years hence, our actual numbers of elected politicians decreased and stagnated. It is possible that this increase in party members and decrease in our capability to create political power owes to our attitude towards minorities. The societal climate was against strangers. GroenLinks leadership tried to walk a tight rope, maintaining our support on emancipation of minorities but adding an element of criticism to them. It is my opinion that this balancing act was very unsuccessful outside GroenLinks itself. The rank and file of the party showed themselves repeatedly in support of the sketched view, but our voting share did not increase, and the participation of minorities inside GroenLinks decreased abruptly. It seems to me that we alienated minorities without conquer much from other voters. To the outside world we repeatedly gave mixed signals. GroenLinks certainly and successfully opposed Verdonk, bringing about a cabinet fall, but did vote for a relevant part of the policies that Verdonk proposed, like the law inburgering. Meanwhile we kept looking for forms of constructive integration of minorities, our leadership repeatedly supported persons like Hirshi Ali, a rabid criticaster of the Islam, who has ended working for the most right wing institution possible, in the USA. Independently of the ethical correctness of our positions, GroenLinks did not succeed in finding an own clear voice in the polarized debate on minorities, as Pechtold managed to do in the last years, bringing about an unexpected revival of D66.
The relevance of this past for the immediate future is not to be easily dismissed. The persons hoping for a fast collapse of the governmental coalition of liberals and far right wingers has been, so far, deceived. The Wilders group, with all their internal problems, is in no way the chaos of the LPF. Most of the Wilders' political capital has been build around its hard stance against minorities. The interesting fact is that minorities, at least in The Netherlands today, are far less homogeneous that Wilders would like them to be. A second and third generations of migrants has steadily find a place in the society. Traditional identity politics have little or none effect in this population sector: nobody born and educated in The Netherlands is comfortable with being addressed as allochtoon, whether for chanting the marvels of diversity or for decrying the dramas of a multicultural population. With their own and diverse luggage of backgrounds, whoever forms the allochtoon sector of the dutch population today is not interested in ethnicity as a defining factor of his or her politics. But this sector will still be attacked by Wilders. Can the relatively new leadership of GroenLinks create new bands and connections with this former GroenLinks voters? That is a question defining the first third of the challenges for GroenLinks in 2011.
In the words of the anointed follower of Halsema, Jolande Sap, the past decade was about socio-cultural debates. With an emphasize in past, I gather. Jolande would like GroenLinks to focus on socio-economic issues, a hard core left wing issue if any at all. With this stance Jolande seems to acknowledge a long standing criticism to GroenLinks, which I first heard from Jean Tillie back in 2002: the left looses its identity (and its power) when engaged in cultural wars. Cultural discussions are interesting, but are almost always won by the traditionalists parties. The right of existence of the left is the recognition of inequality as a fundamentally unfair phenomenon. And the success of the left comes when we are capable to produce ideas and policies that tackle the (today growing) gap between rich and poor. Jolande Sap shows, with her starting statement, a remarkable capacity of identifying a key issue today. Because it is true that the pervasive welfare european society has shielded the most crude effects of the last financial crisis for the citizens, at least from north europe. We have not seen the levels of sudden layoffs, or spinning out of control financial sectors witnesses in other european countries, or in the states. But the crisis is by far and large not averted. Whether it produces the breakdown of the euro, as some commentators predict, or not, it is undoubtedly that the policies of the current dutch government will increase the gap between poor and rich.
Of course, to identify a key issue is not to win the debate about it. The relevant innovation that Halsema brought to GroenLinks was the liberalization of our economic positions. An innovation that brought a relevant level of discontent inside party members, and certain renewal in our power base. If a relevant percentage of voters of GroenLinks a decade ago where minorities, today they have been replaced by persons that would not go as far as to vote for the liberals, but certainly expect more liberalism that the offered by the social democrats. To serve to this raising middle class Jolande Sap is in an excellent moment. Extending the existing positions of GroenLinks, which aim at making the labour and housing market more dynamic, will increase our appeal for this sector. But will it increase our share of the vote of the dispossessed? There have GroenLinks a much harder sale. The new left, whether Clintonist, Blairite or Halsemian, based their temporal power in a middle class of well educated professionals. The lower classes did not vote for them. Today we are a huge crisis and ten years after the raise of the third way. Would GroenLinks under Sap be capable of articulate a set of policies that not only help the poor, but also are recognized by the poor as helping? That is the bigger question for GroenLinks, and we will see the first answers to it... in 2011. From my own thinking I can only point to a crucial issue. When GroenLinks heard of the liberal agenda of Halsema by first time, we where offered a package of economic measures that flexibilized several markets. The idea was to break the dominant position of a group of citizens, and open markets to outsiders. But the so called outsiders are the most flexible sector of the dutch economy. Flexibilization of work rights do not benefit outsiders. And even if that is matter of debate, what has been proven as a fact the last years is that no person with a low salary and a precarious job will vote for a more flexible labour situation. GroenLinks is more liberal than a decade ago, no doubt. But to make a success of this liberalism, we will have to sell it better, to begin with.
To fuse or not to fuse
The issue of the -relatively new- liberalism of GroenLinks brings, unassailable, the second third of challenges for groenlinks the next period. I refer, of course, to the much publicized creation of a progressive front between Groenlinks and D66, adding (hopefully) members of PvdA, VVD and even the CDA. To begin with, the idea of a progressive front has a conceptual trajectory that can be traced to several years ago, when a (new?) ideological break line became popular, the progressive/conservative divide. According to this view, the old differences between left and right are far less important than the differences between conservation and progression. Of course, if you would believe in such an idea, it is only a follow up that political movements that sit in one or another side of the divide should join forces. Already in 2008 a small debate occurred between
Paul Vermast and
Brechtje Paardekoper, that can still be found in internet. Paul pointed that the ideas of GL and D66 where very close to each other, so a fusion between these parties should be a success. To which Brechtje contested that as a matter of fact, the economic programs of both parties where quite different. The same debate flared few months ago, with
a website and several pleas from
Groenlinksers and
PvdAers.
Interesting is to notice that both in 2008 and in 2010 (at least at the begin) the leaderships of the involved parties were careful not to appear as embracing or denying the idea. But this has changed few days ago. In comments reported by mainstream newspapers Jolande Sap shows a mild enthusiasm for the idea of a progressive front, including the creation of few shared programmatic points for the coming senate elections. This idea, supported by Ploumen, the PvdA fractie leader, has not been so popular with Pechtold, the D66 leader. These are, of course, news in development. Tomorrow's newspapers might bring any unexpected twist to this narrative. But the involvement of the party leaderships this time tells me that this is a debate that is not likely to disappear as in 2008. For me is puzzling that Jolande Sap, after having said that her focus will be economic inequality, is positive on a collaboration with D66, a party whose economical agenda lies far away from having reducing inequality as a goal.
In any case, the desperation that the success of the coalition liberal/far right wingers brings along will be a relevant motor for this debate. If the coalition would collapse today, no doubt that any fusion will be a far cry right away forgotten. But as long as the current cabinet stays in control and implements more and more policies, opposition parties will grow together, and whether this be left or progressive, talks about a fusion will remain alive. Perhaps it is instructive to look at the evolution of GroenLinks to predict how this discussion will evolve. Back in 2000 I repeatedly heard that the GroenLinks project was, in the strategical, a movement to bring the social-democrats closer to their left wing core. Simplification that made sense then, when the social democrats had been in power with the liberals for quite a long period. Nothing like that is said now, but we are talking about bringing progressive members of the PvdA in. huh? The not fully spelled motivation here, is to break the success of the right, and given that we do not believe in the power of the left anymore, we are looking for a new progressive coalition. It has been mentioned repeatedly that the number of parliamentary seats in reach of a progressive fusion might be relevant. Say it in other way: let's get together to obtain more power. The problem with this motivation is that it lacks a political identity of its own, and it bounces with the politico-economical identities of the parts to be fused, surely when thinking beyond the middle class that vote for GL, D66 or PvdA. All this people might look more or less the same, and appears to switch between these parties without qualms. But that is no guarantee whatsoever that a mix would be productive or stable.
And what about green?
Stability. Or sustainability, if you want. Taking the detached long term view, the birth of left-green parties twenty-some years ago brought an unexpected element in politics: a relation with nature that must strike a balance between use and conservation. We green lefties are not for isolating nature from men, and neither are we for the exploitation of it to the bitter end. Actually, we recognize that we must use nature to develop ourselves. Nothing new to lefties since Marx. The new thing was that we believe that this use might be phrased in a much more sustainable way. And here we are, thinking about the future of the dutch green party. So far, nothing like green and environment has been mentioned. 2010 saw two of the most dramatic international moments in this issue: Kopenhagen and Cancun. Well, dramatic... Kopenhagen was a defeat for the greens of the world, because we were brutally (and rightfully in my opinion) reminded that third world countries are not to accept whatever receipt to be offered by the first world. And one of the longest prepared international summits ended in abject failure. Cancun has just ended, without a defeat, but neither with a resonant gain. Perhaps this is all good, since small steps tend to be more sustainable than big pronunciations. But anyhow, Cancun has been of little or none importance for GroenLinks. Which is, to say the least, bizarre.
For any voter in The Netherlands GroenLinks is a green party. That is what define us. But the core discussions of the last years has not been focused in whatever might be green, at all. We think that the being clearly framed as greens, and having so few internal disagreement on what green is, is a perfect state of affairs. Which is a serious problem. The public keeps on perceiving "green" as a nice idealistic pursue of a small and well-off sector of the population. A left wing hobby per definition. Worse enough, not a sympathetic hobby at all. "Green" is still broadly perceived today as a set of rules that criticizes and constrains whatever life style a person might choose. Besides a feeble attempt to say that "green" might actually produce labor, GroenLinks has not invested any effort in linking the emancipation agenda of the left, with the sustainability pursue that is so obvious for any groenlinkser. Moreover, we lost the european ideological battle in a way that should have produced deep reflection. At the start of the past european elections we proposed the New Green Deal, our way to get out of the crisis. Simply said, the plan was to expend our way out of the crisis. Not with any expenditure, but with investment in green infrastructure. A wonderful plan, which has no impact whatsoever in european fiscal policy. Any european government today, and every european instance of policy making has chosen the other way. Not to expend our way of the crisis, but to save it. Europe is cutting every budget that can be cut away. But we, the greens, we are still talking about our New Green Deal.
This apparent autism is the more puzzling for me considering our current european politicians. Bas Eickhout is certainly aware of the relevance of green economics, and having worked a whole life as bureaucrat in several instances of the dutch government is well aware of the inroads and interconnections of Brussels and The Hague. When we elected Bas to the EP, and after his positioning in the green european parliamentary group, I expected the political talent of Bas to make the most of our green economic agenda. Differently than many other green politicians, one of the best talents of Bas is to present the positive side of whatever green issue would be debated. No catastrophic and doom scenarios for Bas. But so far this expectation, of a new coat of paint for our beloved but unsympathetic green standpoints, has barely come to fruition.
The blessing in disguise is that I expect the next year to be much more influenced by european politics. The delayed clash between the economical views of Merkel and Sarkozy is heading to a climax, with certain consequences for national economies. I expect that the positions of Bas in the issue will gain, slowly but certainly, an own place in the imago of GroenLinks to the extern world. And not only from Bas. Our other two MEPs, Judith Sargentini and Marije Cornelissen have positioned themselves at the core of two other key issues. Marije is deeply involved with the gender discussions in the EP, and Judith with the migration ones. Being gender policy an issue rather consensual in The Netherlands, and being a great majority of the dutch society in agreement with Marije, I expect her national presence to increase in the coming year. Harder to predict is the trajectory of the leader of our MEPs, Judith. As I have argued above, migration remains to be a hot issue in NL, and surely in Europe. But the positions that Judith appears to support are certainly contrarian to a relevant part of Groenlinksers. Her support for the circular migration scheme will bring debate, that will unravel itself in 2011. In the eyes of some of us, the very principle of circular migration is a badly disguised going back to the gastarbeider schemes of the sixties, scheme that not offering any integration policy to the migrant, expect her or him to depart after a short time. This did not happen, nor I can possibly imagine why would it happen in the future. So I predict interesting and not too cold discussions, if Judith want to bring GroenLinks to agree with such ideas.
Looking backwards I see that this post in my blog is the longest that I have ever written. But hey, I haven't frequently tried to predict a whole year of politics, have I? Let's see then what happens. Will my pet issues (left economics, fusion and green/migrating europe) dominate GroenLinks politics in 2011? Only the future can tell... and we love the future.